China Electric Power Unit: coal storage in power plants hit a new high in the same period, spot prices continue to decline weakly

The "CECI Index Analysis Weekly Report" (Issue 38, 2024) released by the Preparation Office of China Electric Coal Purchasing Price Index (CECI) shows that this issue (2024.10.10-2024.10.18) CECI Caofeidian Index continues to decline weakly. The spot transaction prices of medium and high cards in the coastal index fell sharply. The import index of high-calcification coal continued to decline slightly, while the medium-low-calcification coal rose slightly. The CECI Purchasing Managers Index is in a contraction range for two consecutive periods. In the sub-index, the supply and inventory sub-index is in an expansion range, and the demand, price and shipping sub-index are in a contraction range. Except for the demand sub-index that rises month-on-month, other sub-indexes all decline month-on-month.

1. Market situation summary

In this period, electricity consumption continued to rebound, coal-fired power plants grew rapidly on a month-on-month basis, and some areas in the Northeast and Northwest China successively provided heating, with significant growth in heating, electricity coal consumption increased rapidly, coal intake increased slightly month-on-month, and inventory continued to grow month-on-month. According to the statistics of China Electric Power Union fuel data, the average daily power generation of coal-fired power plants of coal-fired power plants included in the fuel statistics of the power industry in this period increased by 6.9% month-on-month and 6.5% year-on-year. The average daily heating capacity increased by 41.7% month-on-month and 26.7% year-on-year. The average daily electricity and coal consumption increased by 6.9% month-on-month and 5.4% year-on-year. Among them, the average daily coal consumption of sea-road power plants increased by 7.5% month-on-month and 7.8% year-on-year; the average daily coal consumption of coal entering the plant increased by 2.5% month-on-month and 9.9% year-on-year. Coal inventory in coal-fired power plants was 120.1 million tons, higher than 7.05 million tons in the same period last year, setting a record high in the same period in recent years.

In terms of the main domestic coal production areas, demand is still basically the Changcheng and the spot transportation needs of the urgent need. Most coal mines maintain normal production, and some coal mines stop production due to annual inspections and other factors. The overall coal supply level is basically stable. Large coal companies have lowered their purchase prices, and the demand for spot coal resources purchased by power plants is low, and most coal factories and traders in the production area are on the wait-and-see attitude, and the price of coal market at Kengkou has dropped slightly and operated weakly. On the port market, on the one hand, the Huo Railway Bureau has introduced preferential measures, and the enthusiasm of traders to ship shipping has increased. On the other hand, the daily consumption of power plants is at a low level throughout the year, and the non-electricity industry is also mainly waiting and watching, and procurement demand continues to be sluggish. Even during the period of centralized maintenance of the Daqin Line, the number of ports transferred out of the Bohai Rim port is lower than that of the adjustment, port inventory continues to accumulate, market sentiment continues to decline, actual transaction volume is deserted, and the spot price of the port market continues to decline.

Overall, the supply of main coal production areas is basically stable, and the price of coal in pit outlets has dropped slightly and operated weakly. The port inventory is accumulated, coastal power plants are in the off-season of production, procurement demand is sluggish, traders' quotations continue to decline, actual transactions are quiet, and market prices continue to decline.

2. CECI index analysis

The spot transaction prices of CECI Coastal Index 5500 kcal/kg and 5000 kcal/kg decreased by 8 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous period. Judging from the sample situation, the sample price ranges of 5,500 kcal/kg and 5,000 kcal/kg specifications are 858-860 yuan/ton and 757-763 yuan/ton respectively. Judging from the sample calorific value distribution, the 4500 kcal/kg, 5000 kcal/kg and 5500 kcal/kg samples accounted for 38.4%, 43.5% and 18.1% of the total amount, respectively.

CECI Caofeidian Index on October 17, the average prices of 5,500 kcal/kg, 5,000 kcal/kg and 4,500 kcal/kg were 861.7 yuan/ton, 761.5 yuan/ton and 670.2 yuan/ton respectively. The spot price of electric coal continued to decline weakly. The average price of various specifications this week decreased by 8.3 yuan/ton, 8.2 yuan/ton and 9.8 yuan/ton respectively compared with the average prices of last week. The average daily number of spot trading of each calorific value was basically the same as the previous period, with the number of samples of 5,500 kcal/kg slightly increasing, while the number of samples of 5,000 kcal/kg and 4,500 kcal/kg slightly decreasing.

The unit price of the CECI import index landed standard coal was 959 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous period and 0.1% month-on-month. Among them, the prices of 4,600 kcal/kg and 3,800 kcal/kg rose by 5 yuan/ton and 2 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous period. The procurement time of this issue of sample arrival in Hong Kong was concentrated in mid-September, with imported coal running steadily, the price of high-calorie coal falling slightly, and the price of medium- and low-calorie trucks rising slightly.

CECI Purchasing Managers Index is 49.26%, and it is in the contraction range for two consecutive periods, a month-on-month decrease of 0.37 percentage points. Among them, the supply index was 52.22%, a decrease of 1.24 percentage points month-on-month, which was in the expansion range, indicating that the supply of electricity and coal continued to increase and the growth rate narrowed. The demand sub-index was 49.44%, up 1.06 percentage points month-on-month, and was in the contraction range for four consecutive periods, indicating that the demand for power coal continues to decline and the decline has narrowed. The inventory sub-index was 52.96%, down 0.72 percentage points month-on-month, and was in the expansion range for three consecutive periods, indicating that the inventory of power coal continued to increase and the growth rate narrowed. The price sub-index was 44.48%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.90 percentage points, and was in the contraction range for two consecutive periods, indicating that the price of electric coal continued to decline and the decline expanded. The shipping sub-index was 47.41%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.27 percentage points, and was in the contraction range for two consecutive periods, indicating that the price of electric coal shipping continues to decline and the decline has expanded.

3. Relevant information and suggestions

According to the monitoring and summary data of the Office of the Leading Group for Logistics and Safety Protection and Smoothness of the State Council, from October 7 to October 13, the national freight logistics was operated in an orderly manner. Among them, the national railway transported a total of 78.683 million tons of goods, a decrease of 2.46% month-on-month; the national expressways had a total of 55.399 million trucks, a month-on-month increase of 37.68%.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in September 2024, my country imported 47.588 million tons of coal, an increase of 12.93% year-on-year and 3.80% month-on-month. From January to September, a total of 390 million tons of coal were imported nationwide, an increase of 11.9% year-on-year, exceeding the annual import volume in other years except 2023.

According to data from the National Energy Administration, in September 2024, the national electricity consumption was 847.5 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year. By industry electricity consumption, the electricity consumption of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries and urban and rural residents increased by 6.4%, 3.6%, 12.7% and 27.8% year-on-year respectively. From January to September, the total electricity consumption of the whole country reached 7.4 trillion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year.

According to the fuel statistics of the China Electric Power Industry in Electric Power Industry, as of October 17, the cumulative power generation of coal-fired power plants of the power generation group included in the fuel statistics of the power industry increased by 0.8% year-on-year, and the cumulative power generation this year increased by 1% year-on-year. The coal consumption of coal-fired power plants increased by 0.6% year-on-year this month and decreased by 0.5% year-on-year this year. Coal inventory in coal-fired power plants was higher than 7.05 million tons in the same period last year, and the number of days available in stocks increased by one day compared with the same period last year.

Recently, as the weather turns cooler, it has gradually entered the traditional off-season for electricity consumption, daily consumption continues to operate at a low level, and inventory levels continue to increase. With the support of long-term cooperation and imported coal, power plants maintain basic demand for replenishment, and the release of market demand in the short term is limited. National macro expectations are constantly improving, and non-electricity demand is stable and improving. After October, the Northeast and Northwest regions have successively opened heating, and demand for peak winter is gradually released, and demand for peak winter is gradually released. In the short term, coal prices may enter a volatile bottoming mode. It is recommended that power generation companies attach great importance to and coordinate the arrangement of winter coal storage work to achieve balanced storage replenishment, and enter the peak winter high consumption stage with high inventory levels to ensure that the "food ration" during the heating period is of high quality and sufficient quality.