China Electric Power Coal Inventory continues to grow, market prices fluctuate slightly

China Electric Coal Purchase Price Index (CECI) The preparation office issued the "CECIweekly"(2023Year44period) shows,CECIThe high-card spot transaction price of the coastal index (weekly) fell. The unit price of the import index to land comprehensive standard coal began to fall. In the Purchasing Manager sub-index, except for the price sub-index in the contraction range, the other sub-indexes are in the expansion range, the supply, demand and inventory sub-indexes are down month-on-month, and the price and shipping sub-indexes are up month-on-month.

This week, power generation fell slightly month-on-month, and heat supply continued to grow rapidly. The consumption of electricity coal decreased month-on-month, the amount of coal entering the plant increased month-on-month, and the coal inventory of power plants continued to grow.11moon23Day, the number of days available for coal inventory of power generation enterprises included in the statistics25.4Day, month-on-month decrease0.8sky.

In terms of origin, coal mines in Yulin area are in good sales and pit prices are relatively stable. Due to the high inventory of platforms and ports, sales in the Ordos area have weakened compared with the previous period, and the number of coal mines has begun to increase. Due to insufficient demand and a reduction in port prices in northern Shanxi, the prices of some coal mine pits began to drop slightly.

In terms of origin, coal mine sales in Yulin area are relatively weak, and downstream demand is not high, and some coal mines stimulate sales by reducing prices. The downstream demand in the Ordos region is weak, and some coal mine inventory is at a high level, and the price of pits is slightly lowered. In the northern Shanxi region, affected by the tightening of safety supervision efforts, the sentiment of some coal mines to support prices has increased, and prices have stopped falling and stabilized.

In terms of ports, affected by the strong cold air, coal prices in the port market stopped falling and stabilized. Port inventory is still at a high level and is slowly declining, suppressing the rise in market coal prices. In addition, downstream power plants have less demand for market coal procurement, mainly replenishing inventory with long-term coal and imported coal. The market coal prices have significantly insufficient growth in the later stage. It is expected that in the short term, the market coal price will still be mainly fluctuating slightly.

Overall, the current electricity coal inventory is at a high level, but there have been frequent coal mine accidents in the main production areas recently, and the security inspection efforts in the place of production have gradually increased. The subsequent release of coal production capacity may be affected to a certain extent. At the same time, the number of large-scale and high-intensity cold waves has increased recently, and the procurement demand of power plants will further increase. The subsequent supply and demand relationship between power and coal is expected to gradually tighten, and prices will be mainly fluctuating.

In this issue,CECIImport index landing comprehensive standard coal unit price1085Yuan/Tons, down from the previous period13Yuan/Tons, down from the previous month1.2%, among which the price reduction of Zhongka coal types is relatively large. Recently, the imported coal market has performed smoothly compared with the domestic market. With the rebound of domestic coal prices, the price of imported coal market fluctuates accordingly, but there are fewer transactions at high prices.

In this issue,CECIThe Purchasing Manager Index is50.39%,continuous3In the expansion range, a month-on-month decrease0.16a percentage point. In the sub-index, except for the price sub-index in the contraction range, the other sub-indexes are in the expansion range, the supply, demand and inventory sub-indexes are down month-on-month, and the price and shipping sub-indexes are up month-on-month. The supply index is51.00%, down month-on-month2.23One percentage point, continuous6The period is in the expansion range, indicating that the supply of electricity and coal continues to increase and the growth rate has narrowed. The demand index is50.66%, down month-on-month0.34One percentage point, continuous3The period is in the expansion range, indicating that the demand for power coal continues to increase and the growth rate has narrowed. The inventory index is50.53%, down month-on-month0.47One percentage point, continuous7The period is in the expansion range, indicating that the electricity coal inventory continues to increase and the growth rate has narrowed. The price index is48.88%, up from the previous month2.89One percentage point, continuous6The period is in a contraction range, indicating that the price of electricity and coal continues to decline and the decline narrows. The shipping index is52.65%, up from the previous month3.181 percentage point, in the expansion range, indicates that the price of electric coal shipping has changed from decline to increase.

This week (11moon17Sun to11moon23Day, the same below), the average daily power generation capacity of coal-fired power generation enterprises included in the statistics, month-on-month (11moon10Sun to11moon16Day, the same below) Reduced2.3%, year-on-year decrease0.8%;The average daily heat supply increased month-on-month7.0%, year-on-year growth18.8%;The average daily coal consumption of power plants decreased month-on-month2.3%, year-on-year decrease1.5%;The average daily coal input volume increased month-on-month3.8%, year-on-year growth4.7%。

11moon20On the day, the National Energy Administration released1-10National electricity industry statistics for the month. Up to10At the end of the month, the cumulative installed capacity of power generation in the country is about28.1100 million kilowatts, year-on-year growth12.6%。1-10In the month, the cumulative average utilization of power generation equipment nationwide2996Hours, less than the same period last year88Hour. Among them, hydropower2704Hours, less than the same period last year298Hour; solar power generation1120Hours, less than the same period last year52Hours; wind power1816Hours, less than the same period last year1Hour; nuclear power6357hours, an increase from the same period last year131Hour; thermal power3677hours, an increase from the same period last year57Hour.

According to the monitoring and summary data of the Office of the Leading Group for Logistics and Safety Protection and Safety Work of the State Council,11moon13day-19On the day, the national freight logistics was operating in an orderly manner, and the national railway transported goods in total7744.5Ten thousand tons, month-on-month growth1.36%;The cumulative passage of highway trucks nationwide5593.1Ten thousand vehicles, month-on-month increase1.37%。

Based on the above analysis, it is recommended: First, December is a key month for peak winter, and the monthly procurement rhythm planning needs to be planned to maintain the stable amount of coal entering the factory, and ensure that the electricity coal inventory continues to maintain a high level. The second is to continue to accelerate the connection and signing of medium- and long-term contracts for electric coal. At the same time, both supply and demand parties actively communicate with railway transportation companies, sign tripartite contracts for production, transportation and demand, and improve the contract performance rate. Third, cold air activity in the northern region has been frequent recently. Power plants in relevant areas have improved emergency supply guarantee plans in advance, made preparations for frozen coal connection and unloading, and maintained coal inventory at a safe level.