China Electric Power Co., Ltd. releases | The coal used for power generation and heating is increasing gradually, and inventory still needs to be maintained at a high level

China Electric Coal Purchase Price Index (CECI) The preparation office issued the "CECIweekly"(2023Year43period) shows,CECIThe high-card spot transaction price of the coastal index (weekly) fluctuated this week. The unit price of the import index to land comprehensive standard coal continues to rise. In the Purchasing Manager sub-index, the supply, demand and inventory sub-index are in the expansion range, and the price and shipping sub-index are in the contraction range. Except for the supply sub-index that rises month-on-month, the other sub-indexes all decline month-on-month.

This week, power generation increased month-on-month, and heat supply continued to grow rapidly. Both the coal consumption of electricity and coal inflows increased month-on-month, while inventory decreased month-on-month.11moon16Day, the number of days available for coal inventory of power generation enterprises included in the statistics26.2Day, month-on-month decrease1.3sky.

In terms of origin, coal mines in Yulin area are in good sales and pit prices are relatively stable. Due to the high inventory of platforms and ports, sales in the Ordos area have weakened compared with the previous period, and the number of coal mines has begun to increase. Due to insufficient demand and a reduction in port prices in northern Shanxi, the prices of some coal mine pits began to drop slightly.

In terms of ports, demand for downstream power plants continues to weaken, coupled with the continued increase in port inventory, and with the increase in pressure on port release, some traders began to lower prices this week, and the port market prices turned from rising to falling. With new cold air coming, port prices are expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term.

Overall, the inventory of power plants, transit terminals and major ports remains high, and the long-term contract and imported coal are stable, and the short-term market demand for coal is relatively limited. As cold air continues to cover many places across the country and the industrial economy gradually recovers, the daily consumption of power plants is expected to further increase, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the later period.

In this issue,CECIImport index landing comprehensive standard coal unit price1098Yuan/Ton, up from the previous period26Yuan/Tons, up from the previous month2.4%, among which the price increase of low-card cards is relatively large. This week, the imported coal market was weak first and then strong, and the overall coal price was slightly higher than last week. The main reason was that India's increased procurement volume had some support for the import market.

In this issue,CECIThe Purchasing Manager Index is50.55%,continuous2In the expansion range, a month-on-month decrease0.23a percentage point. In the sub-index, the supply, demand and inventory sub-index are in the expansion range, and the price and shipping sub-index are in the contraction range. Except for the supply sub-index that rises month-on-month, other sub-indexes all decline month-on-month. The supply index is53.23%, up from the previous month0.19One percentage point, continuous5The period is in the expansion range, indicating that the supply of electricity and coal continues to increase and the growth rate has expanded. The demand index is51.00%, down month-on-month0.53One percentage point, continuous2The period is in the expansion range, indicating that the demand for power coal continues to increase and the growth rate has narrowed. The inventory index is51.00%, down month-on-month0.53One percentage point, continuous6The period is in the expansion range, indicating that the electricity coal inventory continues to increase and the growth rate has narrowed. The price index is45.99%, down month-on-month2.58One percentage point, continuous5The period is in a contraction range, indicating that the price of electricity and coal continues to decline and the decline has expanded. The shipping index is49.47%, down month-on-month3.801 percentage point, in the contraction range, indicating that the price of electric coal shipping has changed from increase or decrease.

This week (11moon10Sun to11moon16Day, the same below), the average daily power generation capacity of coal-fired power generation enterprises included in the statistics, month-on-month (11moon3Sun to11moon9Day, same below) growth7.4%, year-on-year growth5.6%;The average daily heat supply increased month-on-month50.8%, year-on-year growth30.3%;The average daily coal consumption of power plants increased month-on-month9.6%, year-on-year growth5.2%;The average daily coal input volume increased month-on-month3.8%, year-on-year decrease0.1%。

11moon15On the day, the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest data showing that2023Year10In the month, my country produces raw coal3.9100 million tons, year-on-year growth3.8%, growth rate ratio9The month has accelerated3.4per percentage point, average daily output1254.0Ten thousand tons.1—10In the month, raw coal production38.3100 million tons, year-on-year growth3.1%。

11moon16On the 19th, the National Development and Reform Commission held11The press conference in the month pointed out that the National Development and Reform Commission will conscientiously implement the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, give full play to the role of the inter-ministerial coordination mechanism for coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation guarantee work, strengthen overall coordination, strengthen operation and scheduling, strengthen responsibilities of all parties, work with relevant parties to do a solid and detailed job in keeping warm and supply this winter and next spring, attach great importance to and promptly resolve all kinds of potential risks, and make every effort to ensure safe and reliable energy supply and the people's warm winter. First, we will focus on ensuring the safe supply of energy. Strengthen coal production monitoring and scheduling, promote local and enterprises to arrange production plans reasonably, and strive to stabilize production and increase production while ensuring safety. The second is to effectively respond to peak energy consumption needs. Urge relevant parties to improve emergency plans, improve the comprehensive emergency dispatch mechanism, and strengthen preparations for subsequent cold wave weather. Third, we must firmly adhere to the bottom line of energy use in people’s livelihood. Urge all localities to effectively fulfill their main responsibilities for energy use in people's livelihood, formulate and improve and implement relevant work plans.

11moon16On the 1st, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a special meeting on keeping warm and supply in central enterprises this winter and next spring, requiring all central enterprises to strengthen organizational leadership, and the main responsible persons should shoulder their main responsibilities, and the leaders in charge should take the lead in command to ensure that responsibilities are implemented in place. We must take the initiative, increase resource guarantee efforts, strengthen unit equipment maintenance and maintenance management, and ensure that the unit can generate and support power at peak power generation. We must improve long-term mechanisms, promote the construction of peak-shaving power supplies according to local conditions, increase investment in technological innovation, and accelerate the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body. We must strengthen risk investigation, place safety production work in a prominent and important position, and serve the overall situation of supply and stability with a good situation of safety production.

According to the monitoring and summary data of the Office of the Leading Group for Logistics and Safety Protection and Safety Work of the State Council,11moon6day-12On the day, the national freight logistics was operating in an orderly manner, and the national railway transported goods in total7640.9Ten thousand tons, a month-on-month decrease0.37%;The cumulative passage of highway trucks nationwide5517.5Ten thousand vehicles, month-on-month increase0.14%。

Based on the above analysis, it is recommended: First, accelerate the connection and signing of medium- and long-term contracts for electric coal. During the signing process, the requirements for medium- and long-term contract signing will be strictly implemented. Non-compliance phenomena such as bundled sales, price breaks through the upper limit, unreasonable logistics costs, traders' illegal access and improper charges will be summarized in a timely manner, and reported to relevant departments for coordination and resolution to ensure that medium- and long-term contracts for power coal are signed as soon as possible. Second,11moon21-24On the day, strong cold air will affect most parts of my country from west to east, and temperatures will generally drop.6-10℃, local cooling in North China and Northeast China exceeds12℃, relevant regions should formulate and improve emergency supply guarantee plans in advance, and do a good job in purchasing, transporting, picking up and unloading of electricity and coal in a timely manner to ensure that inventory maintains a safe level.