Carbon emission reduction cannot reduce energy security

In response to possible natural gas shortages in winter, Germany has been forced to restart the fire of storageCoal and electricityfactory. At the same time, under the influence of many factors such as extreme weather, energy crisis, geopolitics, and some European countries have restarted coal-fired power. How to view the issue of emission reduction in many countries"Drive back"? In the context of promoting green energy transformation, how to play the role of coal, handle the relationship between coal control and achieving climate goals, improve energy independence and ensure energyEnergy security? In the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeAt the moment when the 28th Conference of the Parties is about to be held, China Electric Power News this issue observes and discusses the implications of restarting coal-fired power for my country's energy transformation and achieving the "dual carbon" goal.

Carbon emission reductionEnergy security cannot be reduced

Recently, Germany has decided to restart some of the closed coal-fired power plants to prevent power shortages in the upcoming winter. This shows that the carbon emission reduction policies of Germany and the entire EU have given way to national political and economic interests.

Restarting coal-fired power is a helpless move

Before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict began, the EU launched an ambitious energy program——Promising to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, increase the target of renewable energy generation from 40% to 45% by 2030, and reduce carbon emissions to 55% of 1990 carbon emissions by 2030, get rid of the dependence on Russian fossil fuels and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

Germany has always been a pioneer in global carbon emission reduction.In 2011, then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that Germany would close all 17 nuclear power plants by 2022, and Germany would become the first major industrialized country in the world to give up nuclear power generation in nearly 25 years. In January 2019, the German Coal Exit Commission announced that it would close all coal thermal power plants by 2038. Germany promises to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 40% of the 1990 emission level by 2020, and achieve a 55% emission reduction target by 2030, and achieve carbon neutrality in the energy industry by 2035, and then renewable energy generation will account for 100%, and achieve full carbon neutrality by 2045. Not only Germany, in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, many European countries have promised to eliminate coal as soon as possible. For example, Italy promises to phase out coal by 2025, the Netherlands promises to phase out coal by 2030.

However, after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, out of the need to fight against Russia, the EU, especially Germany, had to make major adjustments in its carbon emission reduction policy.

From June to July 2022, the EU Energy Ministers' Meeting has revised its target of renewable energy by 2030 to 40%. On July 8, 2022, the German Parliament canceled the target of 100% of renewable energy generation in 2035, but the goal of achieving full carbon neutrality by 2045 remains unchanged. In order to balance, the target of renewable energy share in 2030 will also be raised from 65% to 80%.

Germany is more dependent on coal-fired power than other developed Western economies.In 2021, Germany's renewable energy power generation accounted for 40.9% of the total power generation share, making it the main source of electricity, but the proportion of coal-fired power is second only to renewable energy. After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Germany's natural gas power generation continued to decline, from 16.5% at its highest peak in 2020 to 13.8% in 2022. In 2022, Germany's coal power generation fell to 30% in 2019 and rose again to 33.3%. Due to the uncertainty of renewable energy generation, coal-fired power generation remains very important to Germany.

Germany's restart of coal-fired power is a helpless move. In the final analysis, after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the EU imposed sanctions on Russia in the energy field, which made natural gas prices high. Germany could not bear the pressure brought by high prices of natural gas for a long time, causing the competitiveness of Germany's manufacturing industry to continue to decline and the economy to decline.

Not only Germany, but Europe are also restarting coal-fired power.On June 20, 2022, the Dutch government stated that in order to cope with the energy crisis, the production cap for coal-fired power plants will be lifted. The Netherlands previously forced coal-fired power plants to operate at 35% of the maximum power generation to limit carbon dioxide emissions. After the upper limit of coal-fired energy production, coal-fired power plants can operate at full capacity until 2024, saving a lot of natural gas. Austria is the second European country in Europe to completely phase out coal power generation, but 80% of natural gas is imported from Russia. Faced with a gas shortage, the Austrian government has to restart a coal-fired power plant that has been closed. Even France, which mainly relies on nuclear power, is preparing to restart coal-fired power to ensure stable power supply.

The United States is also on the road to carbon neutrality"Drive back." If the United States wants to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, it needs to reduce carbon emissions by at least 57% within 10 years. The U.S. government has set a goal to reduce carbon emissions to 50% to 52% of the 2005 level by 2030, but carbon emissions increased by 6.5% in 2021 and 1.3% in 2022.

The reinstatement of coal-fired power in Germany to our country

Promoting carbon peak carbon neutrality does not mean that coal must be given up. Germany's restart of coal-fired power tells us that energy security must be firmly in our own hands.

First, Western countries have used energy as a weapon, and relying on imported energy structures is unsafe. In the process of achieving carbon emission reduction and carbon neutrality, Germany regards natural gas as an important transition measure. Germany's oil consumption accounts for the highest proportion of energy consumption40%, natural gas accounts for the highest proportion of energy consumption in 2021 to 25.8%, but Germany's oil and natural gas are basically imported, and mainly come from Russia. After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Germany used energy as a weapon to restrict Russia's oil and natural gas imports, causing serious difficulties in energy supply and had to restart coal-fired power.

In 2022, my country's dependence on foreign crude oil decreased to 71.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%; the dependence on foreign natural gas decreased to 40.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%. It can be learned from Germany's experience that my country's energy structure should rely on the energy endowment of rich coal, lack of oil, and lack of gas to ensure energy security and cannot be deviated from reality.

Second, energy security is the first priority, and carbon emission reduction policies must serve energy security. Germany and EU countries have previously put carbon emission reduction at the top of energy policies, but after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the huge energy gap has caused serious difficulties in domestic energy supply, causing price increases. For example, countries and regions such as the United States, Japan, and South Korea have also experienced severe inflation, which has had a huge impact on economic development and people's lives. In recent years, my country has made great progress in the development of renewable energy.In 2022, the consumption of clean energy such as natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar power generation, etc. will account for 25.9% of the total energy consumption, an increase of 0.4 percentage points. The total installed capacity of renewable energy power generation has accounted for more than 34% of the world, reaching 1.32 billion kilowatts, which is historic exceeding coal-fired power, accounting for about 48.8% of my country's total installed capacity, making a huge contribution to my country and even the world's carbon emission reduction. But it must also be clearly recognized that carbon emission reduction is not the only purpose, and carbon reduction cannot be achieved regardless of the consequences or even in a sporty manner. Ensuring energy security is the ultimate goal.

Third, we should look for new carbon emission reduction paths based on coal. Strive to striveTo achieve carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060 is a solemn commitment made by my country to the world, reflecting the responsibility of a responsible major country. This means that our country needs to make arduous efforts and also needs to find its own path. We must start from the actual situation and gradually achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality. First, vigorously develop renewable energy and continuously increase the proportion of renewable energy in my country's energy structure. At the same time, we must also realize that due to the innate instability of renewable energy, we must always play the role of coal "ballast stone" and "stabilizer". We must never learn from Germany's national conditions and give up coal, causing an energy crisis. Second, we should explore the establishment of a new path to carbon emission reduction. It must be recognized that coal utilization cannot be simply equated with carbon emissions. Coal is an important energy source and a pillar raw material for many industries. Many thermal power plants in my country have achieved ultra-low emissions, and the level of clean coal utilization is constantly improving.