The new "three mountains" of distributed photovoltaics

In the first three quarters, photovoltaic installed capacity was 52.6GW, of whichDistributed photovoltaic35.3GW, accounting for as high as 67%.

Distributed photovoltaics usher in the coveted opportunity of the times, but at the same time, it will also face unprecedented market supervision and regulation.

1. Electricity price risk

As we all know, distributed photovoltaic income is closely related to user electricity prices, especially in industrial and commercial industries.Distributed photovoltaic project. Recently, Shandong, a major distributed photovoltaic province, dropped a "deep water fraud bomb" here.

On November 16, State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company and Shandong Electric Power Trading Center issued an announcement on the 2023 capacity compensation time-sharing peak-valley coefficient and execution period, introducing deep valleys and peak coefficients and execution periods for the first time. Among them, 11:00~14:00 except summer are divided into deep valley sections, which is the peak of photovoltaic power generation.

It is estimated that with the implementation of the deep valley period and coefficient policy, the lowest electricity price for deep valleys in Shandong's industrial and commercial industry may drop to around 0.1 yuan/kWh, and the income of distributed photovoltaics in industrial and commercial industries will be greatly reduced.

For this reason, once the news was released, many investors and developers called out that "industry and commerce cannot be done."

"In the short term, a single project will definitely be affected." Zhang Xiaobin, executive vice president of Shandong Solar Energy Industry Association, said, "Even if energy storage is installed, the high returns of more than 20% of industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaics will be difficult to sustain."

As of the end of the 10th year, Shandong's cumulative installed capacity exceeded 40GW, of which distributed photovoltaics exceeded 29GW. With the large number of new energy connected to the grid in the short term, the peak-shaving pressure of the power grid is increasing day by day. As for energy storage, which is widely concerned by the market, Zhang Xiaobin believes that from the actual situation, whether in terms of technical conditions, market application, or production capacity, energy storage is still difficult to "take on the heavy responsibility".

Another distributed photovoltaic investor also bluntly stated that currently distributed photovoltaic distribution and storage not only strictly regulates safety regulations and other safety regulations, but also faces many bottlenecks such as complex procedures that are beyond imagination, business models cannot be calculated, and technical solutions are difficult to demonstrate. "The photovoltaic storage project has even been suspended in a certain place this year."

In fact, Shandong is not the first province to implement electricity price changes. The latest electricity price document of Hebei South Network in November shows that the electricity price sold within 1kV will be implemented from 12:00 to 15:00, which is the peak of photovoltaic output.

Zhang Xiaobin reminded that many policy signals since this year show that the future is considerable, measurable, adjustable, controllable and "whoever invests, who benefits, who bears it" will be the general trend that distributed photovoltaic investors need to face in the future. "It is not just Hebei and Shandong. By the end of the year, more provinces may introduce electricity price policies to guide the development of distributed photovoltaics more rationally and healthily."

2. Power grid cost

The grid pressure is also more directly displayed on the grid access.

On September 27, the Hebei Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Strengthening the Management of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation in Roofs", pointing out that the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic roofs has grown rapidly, but some areas have problems such as lax implementation of standards and specifications and over-capacity access of distribution transformers, which have a certain impact on power supply safety and power quality. In order to further promote the scientific, orderly and safe development of roof distributed photovoltaics, over-capacity access is strictly prohibited. The photovoltaic capacity (including registered capacity under construction or to be built) connected to the main transformer of the power grid at all levels (distribution transformer) should not exceed 80% of the rated capacity of the equipment. At the same time, the power grid can be accessed regularly, and the county power grid can be accessed by the distributed photovoltaic capacity of the roof is calculated based on the principle that the power is not returned to the power grid of 220 kV or above.

Based on this, relevant departments of the power grid have calculated that there are a large number of counties in Hebei South Grid no longer have distributed photovoltaic access space. As of the end of September, Hebei's photovoltaic accumulated installed capacity of 36.7GW, accounting for as much as 33.4% of the total installed capacity of local power.

To adapt to the power grid, the additional grid costs of distributed photovoltaics are becoming increasingly intensive.

Following the centralized power station, distributed photovoltaic distribution and storage policies have frequently occurred, and many places such as Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Zhejiang have introduced or encouraged or forced distributed photovoltaic configuration and storage.

In addition to storage distribution, in July this year, Henan, a major distributed photovoltaic province, took the lead in including distributed wind power and distributed photovoltaic (excluding poverty alleviation projects) with voltage levels of 10 (6) kV and above in the province into the scope of market entities, participated in the management of Henan's peak-shaving auxiliary services market, and allocated auxiliary service fees according to the peak-shaving cost sharing method of new energy power plants in the current trading rules.

At the same time, Shandong, a benchmark province of distributed photovoltaics, has once again taken the lead. In early June this year, the "Supplementary Notice on Matters Related to the Settlement and Trial Operation of Shandong Province's Power Spot Market Settlement in 2022" (Draft for Comments) organized and drafted by the Shandong Energy Supervision Office, the Provincial Development and Reform Commission, and the Provincial Energy Bureau, required to promote distributed new energy to participate in the power market, gradually include distributed new energy into the scope of market entities, and participate in the same market deviation cost sharing as centralized new energy stations. However, in the formally issued documents, this requirement was deleted.

However, it is worth noting that on October 20, the Shandong Provincial Energy Bureau once again issued the "Notice on Soliciting Opinions on the Provincial Power Market Trading in 2023", which clearly pointed out that in accordance with the principle of "who benefits and who bears it", we will orderly promote the sharing of distributed new energy in the market and support the participation of new energy and distribution and energy storage consortiums in the power market.

According to industry insiders, the current market deviation sharing cost of Shandong new energy power stations is about 0.02-0.03 yuan/kW, and it is on an upward trend. Under the new policy, when investing companies are calculating their income, they can use conservative returns to invest in the range of 0.01-0.03 yuan/degree.

3. System security

Access, income, another important "lifeline" of distributed photovoltaics is system security.

Unlike centralized photovoltaic power stations, distributed photovoltaics are close to the user side. With the advancement of technology, the power level and current voltage of photovoltaic products continue to increase. The photovoltaic system has gradually upgraded from the initial 600V to 1000V and then gradually upgraded to 1500V. Higher voltage also means an increase in fire risk. Once a fire occurs, it will not only cause losses to the power station, but more importantly, it will affect user safety and will also hinder fire rescue.

In this regard, the National Electrical Code requires that the distance to the photovoltaic matrix is 305mm as the limit. Outside the limit range, within 30S after the trigger device is started, the voltage will be reduced to below 30V; within the boundary range, a "photovoltaic hazard control system" is required, or within 30S after the trigger device is started, the voltage will be reduced to below 80V.

Canadian electrical installation regulations require: When the DC voltage on the photovoltaic system is greater than 80V, arc fault interruption equipment or other equivalent equipment must be installed. When the photovoltaic system is installed in a building or on a building, a quick shutdown device should be installed.

In addition, Germany, Australia and Thailand have made relevant mandatory regulations on the safety of distributed photovoltaic systems.

Domestic Policy, On November 26, 2021, the National Energy Administration issued a public solicitation of the "Notice on Strengthening the Safety of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation (Draft for Comments)", which clearly requires that the "Project Design Management" install an arc fault circuit breaker or use components with corresponding functions to realize intelligent arc detection and rapid cutoff function; photovoltaic components should have a safe shutdown protection function to ensure that the inverter is shut down. After the AC power is cut off, the DC voltage outside the system sub-array is lower than the safe voltage.

On November 9, the Dongguan Development and Reform Bureau of Guangdong officially released the "Dongguan Development and Reform Bureau's Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Project Construction Management Measures", which has obvious changes compared with the draft for soliciting opinions in 2021, requiring photovoltaic projects to have component-level rapid shutdown and management capabilities to ensure the safety of personnel and property.

Just one week later, on November 17, the Development and Reform Bureau of Haining City, Zhejiang Province issued the "Haining City Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Project Construction Management Measures" (draft for soliciting opinions), which also listed that photovoltaic projects must have component-level rapid shutdown and management capabilities.

According to industry insiders, ways to achieve component-level fast shutdown function include the use of power optimizers, micro inverters, shutdowners, etc. As more cities join, the security configuration of distributed photovoltaic systems will also be stricter.

As of the end of September 2022, the cumulative installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics in China reached 142.4GW, accounting for 40% of the total installed capacity of photovoltaics. It is about to shoulder half of the land. At the same time, regulatory requirements will become increasingly strict, and market changes are still moving forward.