Focus | Electricity data shows that my country's economy has withstood the impact of the epidemic

Polaris Power Sales Grid News: On the morning of March 16, the National Bureau of Statistics held a press conference on the operation of the national economy from January to February 2020. Most economic indicators fell sharply year-on-year, reflecting that the sudden outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic (hereinafter referred to as the new crown epidemic) has brought a major impact on economic operation.

Electricity data is the "barometer" and "thermometer" of economic operation. What economic operation conditions do recent electricity consumption data reflect? What kind of economic trends does it indicate?

This article uses comprehensive and detailed data on the segmented industry and timely and accurate daily electricity data to interpret the impact of the new crown epidemic on the operation of the national economy.

(Source: China Electric Power News Network Author: State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd. Li Jiangtao Liu Qing Tan Xiandong Shan Baoguo)

Electricity growth rate hits a new low in years

Reflecting the economy has suffered a major impact

State GridCo., Ltd. Statistics show that from January to February, the entire State Grid Business Zone will be in full swing.Power consumptionThe year-on-year decline was 8.8%, the lowest growth rate since January-February 2003, lower than -5.2% in January-February 2009, reflecting that the short-term impact of the new crown epidemic on my country's economy has exceeded the SARS epidemic in 2003 and the international financial crisis in 2008. In February, State Grid Business AreaElectricity consumption in the whole societyThe year-on-year decrease of 11.6%. If factors such as one more day in February 2020 due to the leap year and a low Spring Festival base in February 2019, the actual electricity consumption drop will be even greater. According to the State Grid Power Supply and Demand Research Laboratory, the average daily electricity volume in February was only about 80% of the normal level, which is consistent with the changes in economic operation indicators from January to February. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) in January-February fell by 24.5% year-on-year; the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 20.5% year-on-year; the total import and export of goods fell by 9.6% year-on-year, of which exports fell by 15.9%.

From 2003 to 2020, the total electricity consumption of the State Grid Business Zone increased year-on-year from January to February.

The growth rate of electricity consumption in various industries generally declines

The industrial impact is particularly serious

By industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry increased by 4.1% year-on-year from January to February, with a growth rate of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the overall stability of agricultural production and being less affected by the epidemic; the electricity consumption of the secondary industry decreased by 13.6% year-on-year, with a growth rate decreased by 14.1 percentage points year-on-year, with a daily average electricity consumption of the secondary industry in February only about 60% of the normal level, reflecting a significant decline in industrial production and the most severely affected by the epidemic; the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, with a growth rate decreased by 13.4 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting a significant contraction in service industry production; the electricity consumption of residents increased by 1.2%, with a growth rate decreased by 11.0 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the suppression of residents' consumption, and the decrease in visits to relatives and friends and dinner parties.

Focusing on industry, industrial electricity consumption decreased by 13.7% year-on-year from January to February, and manufacturing electricity consumption decreased by 11.3% year-on-year; during the same period, the added value of large-scale industries decreased by 13.5% year-on-year, and the added value of manufacturing industry decreased by 15.7% year-on-year. In terms of segmentation, except for the positive electricity consumption of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries among the 31 sub-industry manufacturing industries, electricity consumption in the other 30 industries has all decreased by more than 20%, among which electricity consumption in the textile industry, leather, fur, feather and its products and shoe industry, culture, education, engineering, sports and entertainment products manufacturing industry, textile and clothing, clothing industry, tobacco products industry, railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry, etc., has dropped by more than 20%, and most of them are labor-intensive industries. Correspondingly, among the 41 major industrial industries, the added value of only the oil and gas mining industry and the tobacco products industry, achieved positive growth, while the added value of the remaining 39 industries all achieved negative growth. Among them, the added value of automobile manufacturing, general equipment manufacturing, railways, ships, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing, textile industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, and special equipment manufacturing industry, etc., decreased by more than 20%.

Focusing on the service industry, the year-on-year growth rate of electricity consumption in information transmission, software and information technology services from January to February was as high as 27.3%, reflecting the booming development of online shopping, online office, online education, etc.; the electricity consumption of health and social work increased by 1.4% year-on-year, reflecting the high demand for medical treatment and social service during the epidemic prevention and control period; the electricity consumption of accommodation and catering industries, education, culture, sports and entertainment industries, wholesale and retail industries decreased by 11.4%, 7.9% and 7.0% year-on-year respectively, mainly due to the intensive service industry, reflecting that it was significantly impacted by the epidemic. Correspondingly, the national service industry production index fell by 13.0% year-on-year from January to February; the information transmission, software and information technology service industry production index increased by 3.8%; the national online retail sales of physical goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year, achieving counter-trend growth; the room revenue of the accommodation industry above the limit fell by nearly 50%, catering revenue decreased by 43.1%, and commodity retail sales decreased by 17.6%.

Daily electricity volume has steadily rebounded

Reflecting the orderly progress of enterprises' resumption of work and production

Monthly electricity consumption data fully reflects that the new crown epidemic has had a major impact on my country's economic operation, but in the coordinated promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, timely, accurate and reliable daily electricity data must be used.

According to previous years' experience, the daily electricity volume changes around the Spring Festival show a "V-shaped" trend, and the valley bottom is usually on the second day of the first lunar month, and the fifteenth day of the first lunar month rebounds to about 90% of the pre-holiday level. In January this year, the daily power generation and electricity generated by the State Grid business district first continued to decline due to the impact of the Spring Festival, and then failed to "bottom down and rebound" during the Spring Festival holiday due to the impact of the epidemic. As February begins, the daily electricity generation and reception volume will first remain low, and enterprises will steadily rebound after resuming work (most provinces stipulate that it must not be earlier than February 10). In the first week of full resumption of work (February 10-16), the average daily power generation and reception in the State Grid business area was 66.3% of the pre-holiday level, 1.0 percentage points lower than the previous week (February 3-9); in the second week (February 17-23), an increase of 3.6 percentage points to 69.9%, and in the third week (February 24-29), an increase of 4.1 percentage points to 74.0%, especially in late February, a significant rebound. Overall, the daily power generation data of State Grid Business Zone has strongly proved that enterprises have achieved positive results in resuming work and production, and the impact of the epidemic on economic operation is generally short-term and controllable.

Important results have been achieved in epidemic prevention and control

Subsequent electricity consumption growth stabilizes and improves

At present, my country's COVID-19 prevention and control has achieved important phased results, the spread momentum has been basically curbed, the process of resumption of work and production of enterprises has accelerated, and the economic and social order has been restored in an orderly manner. It can be said that the national economy has withstood the impact of the epidemic. The latest power data shows that on March 17, the daily power generation and reception of State Grid business areas has returned to about 83% of the pre-holiday level, close to the absolute scale of the same period last year. Considering that the current temperature is relatively high than usual, it is expected that the electricity consumption of the State Grid business area in the whole society will drop by about 5% year-on-year in March and will drop by about 7% year-on-year in the first quarter.

Recently, the COVID-19 epidemic has spread around the world, and many countries have taken measures such as blocking traffic, reducing clusters, and quarantine at home to deal with the epidemic. The international financial market and commodity prices fluctuate significantly, and the world economic growth rate will decline significantly, which will inevitably bring great external risks and challenges to my country's economic growth. Considering the important phased achievements made in my country's current epidemic prevention and control and the long-term positive fundamentals of my country's economy have not changed. In addition, greater hedging policies are expected to be introduced in the next step. Economic activities that were suppressed in the early stage will be released and compensated, and the short-term impact caused by the new crown epidemic will be gradually eliminated, and the economic operation is likely to be stable and improving in the second half of the year. Therefore, it is expected that the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society will rebound significantly in the second quarter and the second half of the year, and maintain steady growth throughout the year.