Review and analysis of Sichuan's 2020 annual centralized transaction (first round) regular direct purchase

Polaris Power Sales Grid News: 9:00 Beijing time on April 8, "Sichuan in 2020Electricity MarketThe "transaction" officially opened. After the first three consecutive days of platform transactions, the concentrated transaction has come to an end. The game between the buyer and seller is intriguing, and it also makes the subsequent bilateral transactions and the second round of platform transactions full of mystery and expectations.

(Source: WeChat public account "Shuo Die Transfer" ID: e-power365 Author: Shuo Die Xiaoshuo)

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Regular direct purchase (all year) transaction

Participate in total energy analysis

The "2020 Trading Guidance Opinions" has undergone a significant upgrade compared with previous years, and its scope and content are unprecedented. This has also brought a certain amount of work to market entities on the interpretation and digestion of policies, especially for power sales companies that have not participated in the Sichuan direct power purchase market for a long time, and the transaction risk index has also increased significantly. Judging from the three-day electricity consumption side declaration, the demand for buyers showed a significant downward trend, especially the first and second days of the market, which are related to factors such as low expectations for centralized platforms and changes in trading strategies. The supply and demand ratio restrictions were lifted this year, and the annual transaction seller participation volume can be immediately reflected, with the average purchase and sales ratio being 0.62. Judging from the three-day participation capacity, it is showing a downward trend as the electricity-using side, which seems to be moving forward and retreating together with the electricity-using side.

Comparative analysis of the number of participants and average demands

Through the comparative analysis of the number of participating companies, it can be seen that it is similar to the volume and energy trend, but the proportion of purchasing and sales participation has increased significantly compared with the purchase and sales volume and energy ratio.

The average demand for buyers is about 80 million kWh, and the average demand for sellers is about 110 million kWh per enterprise. From this, we can draw a basic judgment that most of the annual transaction volume of power sales companies that the buyer should participate in is more than 100 million kilowatt-hours, while the seller should participate in large and medium-sized power generation companies. Small power generation companies should have completed the "over-the-counter bilateral transaction" in advance and have not participated in the centralized transaction of the balanced structure of the regular direct purchase throughout the year.

From the analysis of the total number of sellers and the proportion of participating in the annual transaction, the overall enthusiasm of sellers to participate is also not high, which can basically confirm that most of the sellers participating in the balanced transaction are not small power generation companies.

Transaction rate analysis

From the perspective of transaction rate, although the transaction ratio trend is rising, the absolute transaction volume is relatively low. Compared with the already low annual centralized transaction ratio of about 10% in 2019, the proportion of balanced transactions in this round of regular direct purchases has been greatly reduced. The main reason is that there are many rounds of transactions such as "bilateral negotiated transactions", "annual concentrated (second round)" and final transfer transactions. This round of transactions is just the "bottom-bottom" between the buyer and the seller. I believe that the pace of transactions between the buyer and the seller who have "know in mind" will be accelerated in the future. This also shows from another perspective that the time and space of annual transactions in 2020 have been greatly improved, and it is not a "first-term" centralized transaction. At the same time, it seems that in the form, it also adapts to the spot transactions formally carried out in the future in advance.

Transaction price analysis

The 3-day trading is only 2 days long, and the prices are all 260 yuan/MWh. From the perspective of the listing price of the seller, it is mostly concentrated between 262 and 270 yuan/MW, while the expected prices of the seller are mostly below 258 yuan/MW. The price differences between purchase and sale always exist and the gap is large. It is not difficult to understand that the reason for the low transaction volume is mainly price strategy and expectations.

02▶

Regular direct purchase (monthly) transaction

Participation energy analysis

By conducting demand energy analysis in the water period, we can clearly see that the rigid demand on both sides of the purchase and sale is completely opposite. The demand of the buyer is mainly concentrated in the dry period and the demand is large, there is a certain demand during the flat period, and there is very little demand during the high period. The demand of sellers is mainly concentrated in the flood season, which fully demonstrates the overall power generation characteristics of Sichuan hydropower enterprises, which are more abundant, less runoff, and less storage capacity. In addition, it also reflects the aspects of trading strategies focused on both sides of the main body in bilateral or centralized transactions.

Comparative analysis of average demand for participating households

From the analysis of the number of participating companies, we can also draw the same typical characteristics as the quantity analysis, that is, the power purchase is "savvy" during the water-raising period, and the power-selling side is "selling in large quantities" during the water-raising period. At the same time, the power purchase side has concentrated a certain amount of residual demand for the dry and peaceful period through "over-the-counter bilateral transactions", and it is expected that procurement can be carried out through monthly methods.

Judging from the enthusiasm of the seller to participate in the platform's centralized monthly transactions, the overall trend is lower than in 2019 and has a gradual decline in terms of water period characteristics, which shows that this year's regular direct purchase transaction is consistent with the trading guiding ideology of "bilateral as the main and platform as the auxiliary" defined in the policy documents. It also shows that the power generation side hopes to conduct wholesale transactions through bilateral transactions.

Judging from the average monthly demand on both sides of purchase and sale, the total volume is not large, which also means that only a small part of the platform transactions are involved, which should be due to the bearish judgment of the expected transaction results of the platform's centralized transactions. Therefore, when choosing the transaction method, the two parties mainly choose "bilateral negotiated transactions" for wholesale procurement.

Transaction rate analysis

The transaction rate analysis shows that the transaction rates during the flat and dry periods are extremely low, and the price differences between the buyers and sellers are serious. What is interesting is that there are very few buyers in the flood season, but there are still 1.6 buyers per month. Judging from the trading strategy, such transactions are not scientific and reasonable in the monthly transaction method. The reasons will be analyzed in depth in the future.

Transaction price analysis

Judging from the transaction price trend, the price range of the benchmark price and upper limit price in the dry period is basically in the price range of the upper half of the price, and the transaction volume is not large. This also shows that there is a lot of rigid demand in the dry period purchase, and faces a painful choice in the face of prices. He chose a trading strategy that basically does not buy between having to buy and buying expensive.

Monthly transactions are reported for the first time. Although the "Guiding Opinions" and "Overall Plan" clearly state, the purchase and sale entities have never seen the "true face of Lushan" before they are actually carried out. From the comparison of the volume and price curve with the purchase and sale, we can clearly find that the key needs of the main bodies on both sides are different in price expectations. In three-day transactions, the average daily demand for buyers is about 1.57 billion kWh, and the average daily demand for sellers is about 11 billion kWh. The three-day transaction totaled 110.822 million kWh of electricity, with a household rate of only 2.36%. The transaction was bleak and the transaction effect was poor. It can be foreseen that in subsequent bilateral transactions, both parties will adjust their expectations and strategies to speed up the pace of transactions.

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Review of regular direct purchases and future market prospects

The 2020 concentrated (first round) transaction has ended. Judging from the demand of the buyers and sellers participating in the platform transaction, the demand for the buyers and sellers has been relatively large, but there are obviously different demand pain points and price expectations on both sides of the purchase and sale. From the perspective of subsequent transactions, there will be two possible adjustments. One is that the two parties on both sides adjust their price expectations and gradually move closer to the middle, so as to promote successful signing; the other is that the electricity side will sort out their own awakening needs and pain points again, adjust the annual trading strategy, participate in the transaction in key points and steps, and put uncertainty into the later transactions. The advantage of the first method is that the subsequent transaction pressure is less, the autonomy is high, and the subsequent risks are relatively controllable. The disadvantage is that profits will be lost. The advantage of the second trading strategy is to solve the main contradictions in the near future, but the subsequent trading pressure is high and various uncontrollable factors are high, full of uncertainty, trading risks are increasing, and risk control is increased. There is no dividend of the power market-oriented reform of "only rise but not fall". The purpose of market-oriented power is to rationally allocate resources. So far, the "annual centralized transaction" has been carried out for three years, and each has its own characteristics, but the trend is obvious. With the increasing clear and standardized policies, the seller has found the key to seize the initiative and is opening the door to turn around the situation!